The NIE estimate is based almost entirely on an Iranian general who defected several months ago, and who may well have been sent to sow disinformation. The report was also0 spearheaded by a man who refused to enforce UN sanctions against Iraq when the inspectors were in there prior to the resumption of the war in 2003. Remember, that action was actually the end of a ceasefire; there was never an end to the Gulf War of 1991.

The NIE report is suspect to say the least...